J/MNRAS/540/716ivo://CDS.VizieR/J/MNRAS/540/716doi:10.26093/cds/vizier/bg-gw-pcCDSMcAlpine S.Jasche J.Ata M.Lavaux G.Stiskalek R.Frenk C.S.,Jenkins A.2026-08-03T07:33:25Z2025-07-16T09:19:54ZCDS support team

CDS, Observatoire de Strasbourg, 11 rue de l'Universite, F-67000 Strasbourg, France

cds-question@unistra.frgalaxy-clustersgalaxiesastronomical-modelsWe present the first results from the Manticore Project, dubbed Manticore-Local, a suite of Bayesian constrained simulations of the nearby Universe, generated by fitting a physical structure formation model to the 2M++ galaxy catalogue using the borg algorithm. This field-level inference yields physically consistent realizations of cosmic structure, leveraging a non-linear gravitational solver, a refined galaxy bias model, and physics-informed priors. The Manticore-Local posterior realizations evolve within a parent cosmological volume statistically consistent with Lambda-cold dark matter, demonstrated through extensive posterior predictive tests of power spectra, bispectra, initial condition Gaussianity, and the halo mass function. The inferred local supervolume (R<200Mpc, or z<~0.05) shows no significant deviation from cosmological expectations; notably, we find no evidence for a large local underdensity, with the mean density suppressed by only ~5% relative to the cosmic mean. Our model identifies high-significance counterparts for 14 prominent galaxy clusters - including Virgo, Coma, and Perseus - each within 1deg of its observed sky position. Across the posterior ensemble, these counterparts are consistently detected with 2{sigma}-4{sigma} significance, and their reconstructed masses and redshifts agree closely with observational estimates, confirming the inference's spatial and dynamical fidelity. The peculiar velocity field recovered by Manticore-Local achieves the highest Bayesian evidence across five independent data sets, surpassing state-of-the-art non-linear models, linear theory, Wiener filtering, and machine learning approaches. Unlike methods yielding only point estimates or using simplified dynamics, Manticore-Local provides a full Bayesian posterior over cosmic structure and evolution, enabling rigorous uncertainty quantification. These results establish Manticore-Local as the most advanced constrained realization suite of the local Universe to date, offering a robust statistical foundation for future studies of galaxy formation, velocity flows, and environmental dependencies in our cosmic neighbourhood.2025MNRAS.540..716Mhttps://cdsarc.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/cat/J/MNRAS/540/716CatalogResearchIsServedByTAP VizieR generic serviceIsServedByConesearch servicerelated-toII/246 : 2MASS All-Sky Catalog of Point Sources (Cutri+ 2003)https://github.com/stuartmcalpine/manticore_public_scripts :https://www.cosmictwin.org : Manticore project websitehttps://cds.unistra.fr/vizier-org/licences_vizier.htmlhttps://vizier.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/VizieR-2?-source=J/MNRAS/540/716https://vizier.iucaa.in/viz-bin/VizieR-2?-source=J/MNRAS/540/716http://vizieridia.saao.ac.za/viz-bin/VizieR-2?-source=J/MNRAS/540/716https://vizier.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/votable?-source=J/MNRAS/540/716https://vizier.iucaa.in/viz-bin/votable?-source=J/MNRAS/540/716http://vizieridia.saao.ac.za/viz-bin/votable?-source=J/MNRAS/540/716GETtext/xml+votablehttps://tapvizier.cds.unistra.fr/TAPVizieR/tapCone search capability for table J/MNRAS/540/716/clusters (Manticore-Local cluster properties)https://vizier.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/conesearch/J/MNRAS/540/716/clusters?https://vizier.iucaa.in/viz-bin/conesearch/J/MNRAS/540/716/clusters?http://vizieridia.saao.ac.za/viz-bin/conesearch/J/MNRAS/540/716/clusters?GETtext/xml+votable180.050000true14.118-1.1570.0055555555555555565/425 2066-2067 4504 6932 6935 6978 7063 9713 10906 10962 6/1679 8214 8220 8280 8514 8520-8521 8524 9468 9470 10378-10379 10400-10401 17973 20663 20669 20705-20707 20713 22555 22577 22579 22582 26351 26367 27732 27734-27735 27737-27739 27764-27765 27936-27938 28247 28249-28251 28273 38766-38767 38849 38864 41423 41434 41445 41447 41455-41458 43619 43622 43628 43630 43700 43712-43714https://cdsarc.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/moc/J/MNRAS/540/716?format=asciidefaultJ/MNRAS/540/716/clustersManticore-Local cluster propertiesrecnoRecord number assigned by the VizieR team. Should Not be used for identification.meta.recordintRAJ2000Right Ascension (J2000)degpos.eq.ra;meta.mainDEJ2000Declination (J2000)degpos.eq.dec;meta.mainDistProper distance to cluster centerMpcpos.distancefloatClusterCluster namemeta.id.parentcharpvalPfeifer p-value for detection significancestat.fit.goodnessdoubleSepAngAngular separation from known cluster centerdegpos.angDistancefloatM200Halo mass within R2001e+14solMassphys.massfloatR200Radius of the sphere with 200 times the critical densityMpcphys.size.radiusfloatM500Halo mass within R5001e+14solMassphys.massfloatR500Radius of the sphere with 600 times the critical densityMpcphys.size.radiusfloatVpecLine-of-sight peculiar velocitykm/sphys.velocdoubleVrecRecession velocity (cz)km/sphys.veloc;pos.heliocentricdoubleXposX-coordinate in equatorial frameMpcposfloatYposY-coordinate in equatorial frameMpcposfloatZposZ-coordinate in equatorial frameMpcposfloatSampleIDMCMC posterior sample IDmeta.id;src.sampleint