J/ApJ/834/17ivo://CDS.VizieR/J/ApJ/834/17doi:10.26093/cds/vizier.18340017CDSChen J.Kipping D.2017-09-01T14:41:37Z2017-06-15T13:42:28ZCDS support team

CDS, Observatoire de Strasbourg, 11 rue de l'Universite, F-67000 Strasbourg, France

cds-question@unistra.frstellar-massesstellar-radiimultiple-starssolar-system-planetsastronomical-modelsMass and radius are two of the most fundamental properties of an astronomical object. Increasingly, new planet discoveries are being announced with a measurement of one of these quantities, but not both. This has led to a growing need to forecast the missing quantity using the other, especially when predicting the detectability of certain follow-up observations. We present an unbiased forecasting model built upon a probabilistic mass-radius relation conditioned on a sample of 316 well-constrained objects. Our publicly available code, Forecaster, accounts for observational errors, hyper-parameter uncertainties, and the intrinsic dispersions observed in the calibration sample. By conditioning our model on a sample spanning dwarf planets to late-type stars, Forecaster can predict the mass (or radius) from the radius (or mass) for objects covering nine orders of magnitude in mass. Classification is naturally performed by our model, which uses four classes we label as Terran worlds, Neptunian worlds, Jovian worlds, and stars. Our classification identifies dwarf planets as merely low-mass Terrans (like the Earth) and brown dwarfs as merely high-mass Jovians (like Jupiter). We detect a transition in the mass-radius relation at 2.0_-0.6_^+0.7^M_{Earth}_, which we associate with the divide between solid, Terran worlds and Neptunian worlds. This independent analysis adds further weight to the emerging consensus that rocky super-Earths represent a narrower region of parameter space than originally thought. Effectively, then, the Earth is the super-Earth we have been looking for.2017ApJ...834...17Chttps://cdsarc.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/cat/J/ApJ/834/17CatalogResearchIsServedByTAP VizieR generic serviceIsServedByConesearch servicerelated-toJ/ApJ/825/19 : Mass-radius relationship for Rp<4 planets (Wolfgang+, 2016)J/PASP/128/F4401 : Newly discovered planets from WASP-South (Turner+, 2016)J/A+A/585/A126 : 3 irradiated & bloated hot Jupiters RV and phot. (West+, 2016)J/AJ/150/168 : Spectroscopy & photom. for HAT-P-50--HAT-P-53 (Hartman+, 2015)J/A+A/584/A72 : A rocky planet at 6.5pc from the Sun (Motalebi+ 2015)J/AJ/150/33 : Photometry & spectroscopy of HATS-9 and HATS-10 (Brahm+, 2015)J/A+A/579/A136 : HAT-P-36 and WASP-11/HAT-P-10 light curves (Mancini+, 2015)J/A+A/575/A111 : GAPS V: Global analysis of the XO-2 system (Damasso+, 2015)J/MNRAS/445/1114 : WASP-69b, WASP-70Ab and WASP-84b (Anderson+, 2014)J/A+A/572/A93 : Four new transiting planets (Hebrard+, 2014)J/MNRAS/444/776 : Transiting planets WASP-24, 25 and 26 (Southworth+, 2014)J/MNRAS/440/1982 : WASP 95-101 transits (Hellier+, 2014)J/AJ/147/94 : Solar neighborhood. XXXII. L and M dwarfs (Dieterich+, 2014)J/ApJS/210/20 : Small Kepler planets radial velocities (Marcy+, 2014)J/MNRAS/437/2831 : 4 transiting F-M binary systems (Zhou+, 2014)J/A+A/551/A73 : RV for WASP-54b, WASP-56b and WASP-57b (Faedi+ 2013)J/A+A/549/A134 : 4 new WASP transiting close-in giant planets (Hebrard+, 2013)J/AJ/144/139 : HAT-P-39, HAT-P-40, and HAT-P-41 follow-up (Hartman+, 2012)J/MNRAS/426/1291 : Physical properties of 38 exoplanets (Southworth, 2012)J/MNRAS/426/739 : Velocities for 7 transiting hot Jupiters (Hellier+, 2012)J/ApJ/757/112 : Stellar diameters. II. K and M-stars (Boyajian+, 2012)J/ApJ/750/L37 : Stellar parameters of low-mass KOIs (Muirhead+, 2012)J/ApJ/742/116 : Photometry of 4 massive transiting exoplanets (Bakos+, 2011)J/ApJ/728/48 : Multicolor eclipse data for 6 new binaries (Kraus+, 2011)J/ApJ/709/535 : Masses and radii of ecliping binaries (Brown, 2010)J/other/A+ARV/18.67 : Accurate masses and radii of normal stars (Torres+, 2010)J/A+A/337/403 : Low-mass stars evolutionary models (Baraffe+ 1998)http://www.astro.keele.ac.uk/jkt/tepcat/ : TEPCat: catalogue of transitinghttp://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/factsheet/planet_table_ratio.html :https://cds.unistra.fr/vizier-org/licences_vizier.htmlhttps://vizier.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/VizieR-2?-source=J/ApJ/834/17https://vizier.iucaa.in/viz-bin/VizieR-2?-source=J/ApJ/834/17http://vizieridia.saao.ac.za/viz-bin/VizieR-2?-source=J/ApJ/834/17https://vizier.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/votable?-source=J/ApJ/834/17https://vizier.iucaa.in/viz-bin/votable?-source=J/ApJ/834/17http://vizieridia.saao.ac.za/viz-bin/votable?-source=J/ApJ/834/17GETtext/xml+votablehttps://tapvizier.cds.unistra.fr/TAPVizieR/tapCone search capability for table J/ApJ/834/17/table1 (Masses and radii used for this study)https://vizier.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/conesearch/J/ApJ/834/17/table1?https://vizier.iucaa.in/viz-bin/conesearch/J/ApJ/834/17/table1?http://vizieridia.saao.ac.za/viz-bin/conesearch/J/ApJ/834/17/table1?GETtext/xml+votable180.050000true290.238879237.76016670.0055555555555555566/876 913 1275 1292 2250 2297 2532 2596 2711 3344 3876 4110 4145 4241 4651 4708 4990 5009 5170 5475 5730 6017 6181 6340 6349 6381 6539 6638 7208 7240 8197 8466 9084 9355 9459 9482 9524 9811 9832 10169 10654 10730 10953 12342 12424 12644 12853 12983 13143 13263 13439 13579 13680 13702 13941 14130 14278 14555 14567 14575 14583 14585 14591 14734 14735 14744 14746 14751 14757 14762 14767 14768 14770 14774 14777 14779 14780 14794 14816 14824 14825 14826 14914 14918 14920 14923 14924 14929 14932 14936 14937 14942 14961 14969 14971 14973 15029 15040 15060 15105 15110 15112 15121 15122 15129 15137 15140 15141 15143 15145 15146 15148 15153 15162 15169 15172 15174 15218 15550 15950 16405 16534 16768 16947 17172 17226 17819 17833 18093 18309 18510 18569 18766 18800 18895 18943 20074 20116 20186 20382 20714 20780 20872 21026 21079 21254 21438 21876 21989 22001 22034 22040 22065 22078 22079 22169 22289 22396 22816 22971 23229 24039 24057 24228 24815 25194 25721 25885 26019 26049 26771 26992 27405 27488 27780 28400 28433 28548 28624 28821 28822 29012 30009 30013 30158 30293 30295 30444 30447 30450 30451 30456 30466 31216 31541 31641 31781 32640 32659 32727 32749 33220 33798 34026 34370 34526 34708 34812 34898 35210 35456 35993 36165 36667 36794 37246 37247 37923 38452 38682 39007 39512 39542 39673 40862 41591 42936 42986 42989 43180 43233 43282 43541 43625 43775 43847 43960 44284 44317 44471 44648 45051 45564 45922 46421 46429 46437 46566 46873 46925 47456 47476 48005 48338 48358 48415 48727 48729 48803 49103https://cdsarc.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/moc/J/ApJ/834/17?format=asciidefaultJ/ApJ/834/17/table1Masses and radii used for this studyNameObject Namemeta.id;meta.maincharrecnoRecord number assigned by the VizieR team. Should Not be used for identification.meta.recordintMass[0.0003/318] Massphys.massdoublee_Mass[0.0008/5]? Uncertainty in Massstat.error;phys.massfloatnullablex_MassUnits for Mass (Mjup or Msun)meta.unit;phys.masscharRad[0.1/12] Radiusphys.size.radiusfloate_Rad[0.001/0.4]? Uncertainty in Radstat.errorfloatnullablex_RadUnits for Radius (Rsun, Rjup or Rgeo)meta.unitcharRefReference (1)meta.ref;pos.framecharSimbadNameSimbad column added by the CDSmeta.idchar_RARight Ascension (J2000) from SIMBAD (not part of the original data)degpos.eq.ra;meta.mainnullable_DEDeclination (J2000) from SIMBAD (not part of the original data)degpos.eq.dec;meta.mainnullable