J/ApJ/817/60ivo://CDS.VizieR/J/ApJ/817/60doi:10.26093/cds/vizier.18170060CDSTreu T.Brammer G.Diego J.M.Grillo C.Kelly P.L.Oguri M.,Rodney S.A.Rosati P.Sharon K.Zitrin A.Balestra I.Bradac M.,Broadhurst T.Caminha G.B.Halkola A.Hoag A.Ishigaki M.,Johnson T.L.Karman W.Kawamata R.Mercurio A.Schmidt K.B.,Strolger L.-G.Suyu S.H.Filippenko A.V.Foley R.J.Jha S.W.Patel B.2021-01-22T15:11:48Z2016-04-29T12:23:20ZCDS support team

CDS, Observatoire de Strasbourg, 11 rue de l'Universite, F-67000 Strasbourg, France

cds-question@unistra.frgravitational-lensingredshiftedsupernovaegalaxiesvisible-astronomySupernova "Refsdal", multiply imaged by cluster MACS1149.5+2223, represents a rare opportunity to make a true blind test of model predictions in extragalactic astronomy, on a timescale that is short compared to a human lifetime. In order to take advantage of this event, we produced seven gravitational lens models with five independent methods, based on Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Hubble Frontier Field images, along with extensive spectroscopic follow-up observations by HST, the Very Large and the Keck Telescopes. We compare the model predictions and show that they agree reasonably well with the measured time delays and magnification ratios between the known images, even though these quantities were not used as input. This agreement is encouraging, considering that the models only provide statistical uncertainties, and do not include additional sources of uncertainties such as structure along the line of sight, cosmology, and the mass sheet degeneracy. We then present the model predictions for the other appearances of supernova "Refsdal". A future image will reach its peak in the first half of 2016, while another image appeared between 1994 and 2004. The past image would have been too faint to be detected in existing archival images. The future image should be approximately one-third as bright as the brightest known image (i.e., H_AB_~25.7mag at peak and H_AB_~26.7mag six months before peak), and thus detectable in single-orbit HST images. We will find out soon whether our predictions are correct.2016ApJ...817...60Thttps://cdsarc.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/cat/J/ApJ/817/60CatalogResearchIsServedByTAP VizieR generic serviceIsServedByConesearch servicerelated-toJ/ApJ/812/114 : Grism Lens-Amplified Survey from Space (GLASS) I. (Treu+, 2015)J/ApJ/811/29 : GLASS. IV. Lensing cluster Abell 2744 (Wang+, 2015)J/ApJ/801/44 : HST lensing analysis of the CLASH sample (Zitrin+, 2015)J/MNRAS/444/268 : HST Frontier Fields clusters (Richard+, 2014)J/ApJS/211/21 : Spectroscopic redshifts of galaxies in MACS (Ebeling+, 2014)J/ApJS/199/25 : CLASH sources for MACS1149.6+2223 (Postman+, 2012)J/ApJ/730/119 : HST/WFC3 observations of Cepheids in SN Ia hosts (Riess+, 2011)http://www.stsci.edu/hst/campaigns/frontier-fields/ : HST Frontier Fieldshttp://archive.stsci.edu/prepds/glass/ : GLASS MAST home pagehttps://cds.unistra.fr/vizier-org/licences_vizier.htmlhttps://vizier.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/VizieR-2?-source=J/ApJ/817/60https://vizier.iucaa.in/viz-bin/VizieR-2?-source=J/ApJ/817/60http://vizieridia.saao.ac.za/viz-bin/VizieR-2?-source=J/ApJ/817/60https://vizier.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/votable?-source=J/ApJ/817/60https://vizier.iucaa.in/viz-bin/votable?-source=J/ApJ/817/60http://vizieridia.saao.ac.za/viz-bin/votable?-source=J/ApJ/817/60GETtext/xml+votablehttps://tapvizier.cds.unistra.fr/TAPVizieR/tapCone search capability for table J/ApJ/817/60/table2 (Redshift catalog)https://vizier.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/conesearch/J/ApJ/817/60/table2?https://vizier.iucaa.in/viz-bin/conesearch/J/ApJ/817/60/table2?http://vizieridia.saao.ac.za/viz-bin/conesearch/J/ApJ/817/60/table2?GETtext/xml+votable180.050000true177.3971880622.393743890.005555555555555556Cone search capability for table J/ApJ/817/60/table3 (Multiply imaged systems)https://vizier.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/conesearch/J/ApJ/817/60/table3?https://vizier.iucaa.in/viz-bin/conesearch/J/ApJ/817/60/table3?http://vizieridia.saao.ac.za/viz-bin/conesearch/J/ApJ/817/60/table3?GETtext/xml+votable180.050000true177.39722.3960.005555555555555556Cone search capability for table J/ApJ/817/60/table4 (Knots in the host galaxy of SN Refsdal)https://vizier.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/conesearch/J/ApJ/817/60/table4?https://vizier.iucaa.in/viz-bin/conesearch/J/ApJ/817/60/table4?http://vizieridia.saao.ac.za/viz-bin/conesearch/J/ApJ/817/60/table4?GETtext/xml+votable180.050000true177.3970222.39600310.0055555555555555566/28448https://cdsarc.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/moc/J/ApJ/817/60?format=asciiOpticaldefaultJ/ApJ/817/60/table2Redshift catalogrecnoRecord number assigned by the VizieR team. Should Not be used for identification.meta.recordintID[1/430] Identification numbermeta.id;meta.mainintRAJ2000[177.37/177.43] Right Ascension (J2000)degpos.eq.ra;meta.mainDEJ2000[22.37/22.43] Declination (J2000)degpos.eq.dec;meta.mainz[0/3.8] Spectroscopic redshiftsrc.redshiftfloatq_zQuality flag on z (4=secure; 3=probable)meta.code.qual;src.redshiftintr_zReference flag on z (G1)meta.ref;pos.frameintImgS[1.1/210.2]? Corresponding ID of a known multiply-imaged systemmeta.id.assocfloatnullableP12Display SED data from Postman+, 2012, J/ApJS/199/25, within 0.3"meta.ref.urlintnullableSimbadSimbad column added by the CDSmeta.ref.urlcharJ/ApJ/817/60/table3Multiply imaged systemsrecnoRecord number assigned by the VizieR team. Should Not be used for identification.meta.recordintImgS[1.1/210.2]? Identifier (1)meta.id;meta.mainfloatnullableRAJ2000[177.38/177.42] Right ascension (J2000)degpos.eq.ra;meta.mainDEJ2000[22.38/22.43] Declination (J2000)degpos.eq.dec;meta.mainZ09Z09 identifier(s) (2)meta.id.crosscharS09S09 identifier (2)meta.id.crosscharR14[1.1/14.2]? R14 and J14 identifiers (2)meta.id.crossfloatnullableD15[1.1/8.2]? D15 identifiers (2)meta.id.crossfloatnullablez[1.4/2.5]? Previous spectroscopic redshiftsrc.redshiftfloatnullabler_zReference of zmeta.ref;pos.framecharzspec[0.7/3.8]? New spectroscopic redshift (3)src.redshiftfloatnullabler_zspec[1/4]? Source of zspec (G1)meta.ref;pos.frameintnullableNote[1/5]? Note (4)meta.noteintnullableScore[1/3] Average score (1=secure identification) (5)meta.code.qualfloatSetCategory (6)meta.idcharHCatDisplay SED data from Postman+, 2012, J/ApJS/199/25 and images data from Zitrin+, 2015, J/ApJ/801/44, within 0.5"meta.ref.urlintnullableSimbadSimbad column added by the CDSmeta.ref.urlcharJ/ApJ/817/60/table4Knots in the host galaxy of SN RefsdalD15D15 identifier (2)meta.id.crosscharNoteNote(s) (3)meta.notecharS16[1.1/41.3]? S16 identifier (2)meta.id.crossfloatnullablerecnoRecord number assigned by the VizieR team. Should Not be used for identification.meta.recordintKnotIdentifier (1)meta.id;meta.maincharRAJ2000[177.39/177.41] Right ascension (J2000)degpos.eq.ra;meta.mainDEJ2000[22.39/22.41] Declination (J2000)degpos.eq.dec;meta.mainS09[2/19]? S09 identifier (2)meta.id.crossintnullable