J/ApJ/764/5ivo://CDS.VizieR/J/ApJ/764/5doi:10.26093/cds/vizier.17640005CDSPihajoki P.Valtonen M.Zola S.Liakos A.Drozdz M.Winiarski M.,Ogloza W.Koziel-Wierzbowska D.Provencal J.Nilsson K.Berdyugin A.,Lindfors E.Reinthal R.Sillanpaa A.Takalo L.Santangelo M.M.M.,Salo H.Chandra S.Ganesh S.Baliyan K.S.Coggins-Hill S.A.,Gopakumar A.2017-05-30T07:01:38Z2014-11-06T14:00:54ZCDS support team

CDS, Observatoire de Strasbourg, 11 rue de l'Universite, F-67000 Strasbourg, France

cds-question@unistra.frbl-lacertae-objectsinfrared-photometryvisible-astronomybroad-band-photometryquasarsstellar-flaresWe have studied three most recent precursor flares in the light curve of the blazar OJ 287 while invoking the presence of a precessing binary black hole in the system to explain the nature of these flares. Precursor flare timings from the historical light curves are compared with theoretical predictions from our model that incorporate effects of an accretion disk and post-Newtonian description for the binary black hole orbit. We find that the precursor flares coincide with the secondary black hole descending toward the accretion disk of the primary black hole from the observed side, with a mean z-component of approximately z_c_=4000AU. We use this model of precursor flares to predict that precursor flare of similar nature should happen around 2020.96 before the next major outburst in 2022.2013ApJ...764....5Phttps://cdsarc.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/cat/J/ApJ/764/5CatalogResearchIsServedByTAP VizieR generic servicerelated-toJ/A+A/562/A79 : Variability of 7 blazars in six bands (Sandrinelli+, 2014)J/A+A/559/A20 : Historical outbursts of OJ287 (Hudec+, 2013)J/MNRAS/435/1300 : Intranight optical variability of AGN (Goyal+, 2013)J/MNRAS/421/1861 : OJ287 polarization and VLBI jet direction (Valtonen+, 2012)J/ApJ/747/63 : 7mm VLBA observations of BL Lac object OJ287 (Agudo+, 2012)J/ApJ/731/118 : R-band variability in blazar S5 0716+71 (Chandra+, 2011)J/AJ/141/65 : BATC ceimo light curves of OJ 287 (Dai+, 2011)J/ApJS/194/19 : Optical linear polarization at McDonald Obs. (Wills+, 2011)J/A+A/520/A62 : Radio-optical scrutiny of compact AGN (Arshakian+, 2010)J/MNRAS/402/2087 : Opt. polarization of OJ 287 in 2005-2009 (Villforth+, 2010)J/AJ/138/845 : BVRI observations of 235 bright quasars (Ojha+, 2009)J/AJ/137/4186 : UBVRI standards around celestial equator (Landolt, 2009)J/ApJS/180/67 : Phot. selection of QSOs from SDSS. II. (Richards+, 2009)J/MNRAS/385/823 : UBVRI light curves of OJ 287 (Zheng+, 2008)J/PASJ/60/161 : Multi-wave band emission from blazars (Yi+, 2008)J/A+A/488/867 : Synchrotron peak frequency of 135 AGN (Nieppola+, 2008)J/AJ/134/799 : Multiwaveband polarimetry of 15 AGN (Jorstad+, 2007)J/AJ/132/1256 : eim BATC photometry of OJ 287 (Wu+, 2006)J/A+A/450/39 : BVRI photometry of 8 red blazars (Gu+, 2006)J/A+A/445/441 : SED of BL Lacertae objects (Nieppola+, 2006)J/AJ/130/873 : Properties of BQS objects in the SDSS DR3 (Jester+, 2005)J/AJ/122/2055 : UBVRIJHK phot. of AGN field stars (Gonzalez-Perez+, 2001)J/ApJ/537/101 : Optical Study for blazars. I. (Fan+, 2000)J/ApJ/522/846 : Optical monitoring of GeV loud blazars (Xie+, 1999)J/A+AS/136/455 : BVRI photometry of 3 BL Lac objects (Bai+, 1999)J/A+AS/132/83 : BVRI photometry of 7 BL Lac objects (Bai+ 1998)J/A+AS/129/569 : BVRI photometry of OJ 287 (Jia Guibin+ 1998)J/A+AS/116/403 : VRI phot. of stars in 12 BL Lac objects (Fiorucci+, 1996)https://cds.unistra.fr/vizier-org/licences_vizier.htmlhttps://vizier.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/VizieR-2?-source=J/ApJ/764/5https://vizier.iucaa.in/viz-bin/VizieR-2?-source=J/ApJ/764/5http://vizieridia.saao.ac.za/viz-bin/VizieR-2?-source=J/ApJ/764/5https://vizier.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/votable?-source=J/ApJ/764/5https://vizier.iucaa.in/viz-bin/votable?-source=J/ApJ/764/5http://vizieridia.saao.ac.za/viz-bin/votable?-source=J/ApJ/764/5GETtext/xml+votablehttps://tapvizier.cds.unistra.fr/TAPVizieR/tapOpticalInfrareddefaultJ/ApJ/764/5/table1Observations of the 2012 precursor flarerecnoRecord number assigned by the VizieR team. Should Not be used for identification.meta.recordintMJDModified Julian Date of observationdtime.epochdoubleObsFacility used in observation (1)meta.id;instr.obstycharBand[BR] Passband used in photometry (B or R)instr.setupcharmag[13.4/16.4] Observed magnitude in Bandmagphot.magfloate_mag[0.003/0.06] Error in magmagstat.error;phot.magfloat