J/ApJ/738/170ivo://CDS.VizieR/J/ApJ/738/170doi:10.26093/cds/vizier.17380170CDSMorton T.D.Johnson J.A.2017-12-15T10:55:19Z2013-02-26T15:13:07ZCDS support team

CDS, Observatoire de Strasbourg, 11 rue de l'Universite, F-67000 Strasbourg, France

cds-question@unistra.frmultiple-starssolar-system-planetsastronomical-modelsWe present a framework to conservatively estimate the probability that any particular planet-like transit signal observed by the Kepler mission is in fact a planet, prior to any ground-based follow-up efforts. We use Monte Carlo methods based on stellar population synthesis and Galactic structure models, and report false positive probabilities (FPPs) for every Kepler Object of Interest, assuming a 20% intrinsic occurrence rate of close-in planets in the radius range 0.5R_{earth}_<R_p_<20R_{earth}_. Nearly 90% of the 1235 candidates have FPP<10%, and over half have FPP<5%. This probability varies with the magnitude and Galactic latitude of the target star, and with the depth of the transit signal - deeper signals generally have higher FPPs than shallower signals. We establish that a single deep high-resolution image will be an effective follow-up tool for the shallowest (Earth-sized) transits, providing the quickest route toward probabilistically validating the smallest candidates by potentially decreasing the FPP of an Earth-sized transit around a faint star from >10% to <1%. Since Kepler has detected many more planetary signals than can be positively confirmed with ground-based follow-up efforts in the near term, these calculations will be crucial to using the ensemble of Kepler data to determine population characteristics of planetary systems. We also describe how our analysis complements the Kepler team's more detailed BLENDER false positive analysis for planet validation.2011ApJ...738..170Mhttps://cdsarc.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/cat/J/ApJ/738/170CatalogResearchIsServedByTAP VizieR generic serviceIsServedByConesearch servicerelated-toV/133 : Kepler Input Catalog (Kepler Mission Team, 2009)J/ApJS/197/8 : Kepler's candidate multiple transiting planets (Lissauer+,J/ApJS/197/2 : Transit timing observations from Kepler. I. (Ford+, 2011)J/ApJ/736/L25 : HZs for Kepler planetary candidates (Kaltenegger+, 2011)J/ApJ/736/19 : Kepler planetary candidates. II. (Borucki+, 2011)J/ApJ/728/117 : Kepler planetary candidates. I. (Borucki+, 2011)https://cds.unistra.fr/vizier-org/licences_vizier.htmlhttps://vizier.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/VizieR-2?-source=J/ApJ/738/170https://vizier.iucaa.in/viz-bin/VizieR-2?-source=J/ApJ/738/170http://vizieridia.saao.ac.za/viz-bin/VizieR-2?-source=J/ApJ/738/170https://vizier.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/votable?-source=J/ApJ/738/170https://vizier.iucaa.in/viz-bin/votable?-source=J/ApJ/738/170http://vizieridia.saao.ac.za/viz-bin/votable?-source=J/ApJ/738/170GETtext/xml+votablehttps://tapvizier.cds.unistra.fr/TAPVizieR/tapCone search capability for table J/ApJ/738/170/table2 (False positive probabilities for Kepler planet candidates)https://vizier.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/conesearch/J/ApJ/738/170/table2?https://vizier.iucaa.in/viz-bin/conesearch/J/ApJ/738/170/table2?http://vizieridia.saao.ac.za/viz-bin/conesearch/J/ApJ/738/170/table2?GETtext/xml+votable180.050000true286.808449.31640.0055555555555555564/922 923 933 934 935 945 5/3645 3646 3647 3706 3730 3731 3776 3777 3778 3784 3785 3787 3789 3792 6/14567 14573 14575 14577 14578 14579 14730 14731 14733 14734 14735 14744 14746 14750 14751 14792 14794 14816 14818 14819 14828 14830 14914 14915 14918 14919 15040 15041 15044 15045 15057 15060 15061 15062 15116 15118 15119 15145 15146 15147 15153 15154 15155 15160 15161 15172 15173 15174 15178 15200 15232https://cdsarc.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/moc/J/ApJ/738/170?format=asciidefaultJ/ApJ/738/170/table2False positive probabilities for Kepler planet candidatesrecnoRecord number assigned by the VizieR team. Should Not be used for identification.meta.recordintKOI[1.01/1609.01] Kepler identifier from Borucki et al. 2011, Cat. J/ApJ/736/19meta.id;meta.mainfloatdTransit depth {delta}magphot.magdoubleDetDetection threshold (1)stat.snrdoubleKpmag[8.22/16.42] Kepler magnitudemagphot.mag;em.optfloatAp[1/84]? Size of photometric aperture (2)pixphys.angSize;instr.fovintnullableGLAT[5.87/21.14] Galactic latitude of target stardegpos.galactic.latfloatPer[0.4/10389] Candidate perioddtime.periodfloatM*[0.21/1.84] Stellar mass (3)solMassphys.massfloatR*[0.27/6.16] Stellar radius (3)solRadphys.size.radiusfloatLBBLikelihood{times}prior for blended binarystat.likelihooddoubleLHTLikelihood{times}prior for eclipsing hierarchical triple scenariostat.likelihooddoubleLplLikelihood{times}prior for transiting planetstat.likelihooddoublel_FPPLimit flag on FPPmeta.code.errorcharFPP[0/1] False positive probability (4)stat.fit.goodnessfloatKICDisplay the host star data from KIC (Cat V/133) and Borucki+ (Cat. J/ApJ/736/19)meta.ref.urlcharSimbadSimbad column added by the CDSmeta.refchar_RAPositions of host star from Borucki et al. 2001, Cat. J/ApJ/736/19 (right ascension part)degpos.eq.ra;meta.main_DEPositions of host star from Borucki et al. 2001, Cat. J/ApJ/736/19 (declination part)degpos.eq.dec;meta.main