J/AJ/158/109ivo://CDS.VizieR/J/AJ/158/109doi:10.26093/cds/vizier.51580109CDSHsu D.C.Ford E.B.Ragozzine D.Ashby K.2019-11-06T06:43:23Z2019-11-06T07:38:22ZCDS support team

CDS, Observatoire de Strasbourg, 11 rue de l'Universite, F-67000 Strasbourg, France

cds-question@unistra.frexoplanetsf-starsastronomical-modelsWe characterize the occurrence rate of planets, ranging in size from 0.5 to 16 R_{Earth}_, orbiting FGK stars with orbital periods from 0.5 to 500 days. Our analysis is based on results from the "DR25" catalog of planet candidates produced by NASA's Kepler mission and stellar radii from Gaia "DR2" (Cat. I/345). We incorporate additional Kepler data products to accurately characterize the efficiency of planets being recognized as "threshold crossing events" by Kepler's Transiting Planet Search pipeline and labeled as planet candidates by the robovetter. Using a hierarchical Bayesian model, we derive planet occurrence rates for a wide range of planet sizes and orbital periods. For planets with sizes 0.75-1.5 R_{Earth}_ and orbital periods of 237-500 days, we find a rate of planets per FGK star of <0.27 (84.13th percentile). While the true rate of such planets could be lower by a factor of ~2 (primarily due to potential contamination of planet candidates by false alarms), the upper limits on the occurrence rate of such planets are robust to ~10%. We recommend that mission concepts aiming to characterize potentially rocky planets in or near the habitable zone of Sun-like stars prepare compelling science programs that would be robust for a true rate in the range f_R,P_=0.03-0.40 for 0.75-1.5 R_{Earth}_ planets with orbital periods in 237-500 days, or a differential rate of {Gamma}_{Earth}_=(d^2^f)/[d(lnP)d(lnR_p_)]=0.06-0.76.2019AJ....158..109Hhttps://cdsarc.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/cat/J/AJ/158/109CatalogResearchIsServedByTAP VizieR generic servicerelated-toI/345 : Gaia DR2 (Gaia Collaboration, 2018)J/ApJ/795/64 : A catalog of exoplanet physical parametersJ/ApJ/814/130 : Planet occurrence rates calculated for KOIs (Mulders+, 2015)J/AJ/152/158 : Final Kepler transiting planet search (DR25) (Twicken+, 2016)J/AJ/155/205 : Occurrence rates for Q1-Q16 KOI catalog planet cand.J/ApJS/235/38 : Kepler planetary cand. VIII. DR25 reliability (Thompson+, 2018)https://cds.unistra.fr/vizier-org/licences_vizier.htmlhttps://vizier.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/VizieR-2?-source=J/AJ/158/109https://vizier.iucaa.in/viz-bin/VizieR-2?-source=J/AJ/158/109http://vizieridia.saao.ac.za/viz-bin/VizieR-2?-source=J/AJ/158/109https://vizier.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/votable?-source=J/AJ/158/109https://vizier.iucaa.in/viz-bin/votable?-source=J/AJ/158/109http://vizieridia.saao.ac.za/viz-bin/votable?-source=J/AJ/158/109GETtext/xml+votablehttps://tapvizier.cds.unistra.fr/TAPVizieR/tapdefaultJ/AJ/158/109/table2Inferred planet occurrence ratesrecnoRecord number assigned by the VizieR team. Should Not be used for identification.meta.recordintb_Per[0.5/256] Period range, lower valuedtime.period;stat.minfloatB_Per[1/500] Period range, upper valuedtime.period;stat.maxfloatb_Rad[0.5/12] Planet radius range, lower value(6.3781x10+6m)phys.size.radius;stat.minfloatB_Rad[0.75/16] Planet radius range, upper value(6.3781x10+6m)phys.size.radius;stat.maxfloatl_fVett[<] Limit flag on fVettmeta.code.errorcharfVett[0.00015/0.93] Occurrence rate based on combined detection and vetting efficiency model (1)stat.fit.paramdoublee_fVett[0.0001/0.096]? Lower limit uncertainty in fVettstat.error;stat.mindoublenullableE_fVett[0.00014/0.119]? Upper limit uncertainty in fVettstat.error;stat.maxdoublenullablel_fNoVett[<] Limit flag on fNoVettmeta.code.errorcharfNoVett[0.00016/0.95] Occurrence rate based on no vetting efficiency model (1)stat.fit.paramdoublee_fNoVett[0.00013/0.075]? Lower limit uncertainty in fNoVettstat.error;stat.mindoublenullableE_fNoVett[9.5e-05/0.089]? Upper limit uncertainty in fNoVettstat.error;stat.maxdoublenullableJ/AJ/158/109/table4ExoPaG occurrence ratesrecnoRecord number assigned by the VizieR team. Should Not be used for identification.meta.recordintb_Per[10/320] Period range, lower valuedtime.period;stat.minfloatB_Per[20/640] Period range, upper valuedtime.period;stat.maxfloatb_Rad[0.67/11.39] Planet radius range, lower value(6.3781x10+6m)phys.size.radius;stat.minfloatB_Rad[1/17.09] Planet radius range, upper value(6.3781x10+6m)phys.size.radius;stat.maxfloatl_fTypeF[<] Limit flag on fTypeFmeta.code.errorcharfTypeF[0.0037/1] Occurrence rate for F stellar type (1)stat.fit.paramdoublee_fTypeF[0.0063/0.37]? Lower limit uncertainty in fTypeFstat.error;stat.mindoublenullableE_fTypeF[0.0057/0.35]? Upper limit uncertainty in fTypeFstat.error;stat.maxdoublenullablel_fTypeG[<] Limit flag on TypeGmeta.code.errorcharfTypeG[0.00146/0.97] Occurrence rate for G stellar type (1)stat.fit.paramdoublee_fTypeG[0.00086/0.24]? Lower limit uncertainty in fTypeGstat.error;stat.mindoublenullableE_fTypeG[0.0012/0.26]? Upper limit uncertainty in fTypeGstat.error;stat.maxdoublenullablel_fTypeK[<] Limit flag on fTypeKmeta.code.errorcharfTypeK[0.0021/1] Occurrence rate for K stellar type (1)stat.fit.paramdoublee_fTypeK[0.0022/0.2]? Lower limit uncertainty in fTypeKstat.error;stat.mindoublenullableE_fTypeK[0.0023/0.28]? Upper limit uncertainty in fTypeKstat.error;stat.maxdoublenullable