J/AJ/157/113ivo://CDS.VizieR/J/AJ/157/113doi:10.26093/cds/vizier.51570113CDSBallard S.2019-07-31T05:43:35Z2019-07-05T11:59:07ZCDS support team

CDS, Observatoire de Strasbourg, 11 rue de l'Universite, F-67000 Strasbourg, France

cds-question@unistra.frdwarf-starsm-starsexoplanetsstellar-distanceeffective-temperaturestellar-massesstellar-radiiastronomical-modelsWe present a study of the M-dwarf exoplanetary systems forthcoming from NASA's TESS mission. While the mission's footprint is too complex to be characterized by a single detection completeness, we extract ensemble completeness functions that recover the planet detections from previous work for stars between 3200 and 4000 K. We employ these completeness functions, together with a dual- population planet occurrence model that includes compact multiple planetary systems, to infer anew the planet yield. We predict both the number of M-dwarf planets likely from TESS and their system architectures. We report four main findings. First, TESS will likely detect more planets orbiting M dwarfs that previously predicted. Around stars with effective temperatures between 3200 and 4000 K, we predict that TESS will find 1274+/-241 planets orbiting 1026+/-182 stars, a 1.2-fold increase over previous predictions. Second, TESS will find two or more transiting planets around 20% of these host stars, a number similar to the multiplicity yield of NASA's Kepler mission. Third, TESS light curves in which one or more planets are detected will often contain transits of additional planets below the detection threshold of TESS. Among a typical set of 200 TESS hosts to one or more detected planets, 93+/-17 transiting planets will be missed. Transit follow-up efforts with the photometric sensitivity to detect an Earth or larger around a mid-M dwarf, even with very modest period completeness, will readily result in additional planet discoveries. Fourth, the strong preference of TESS for systems of compact multiples indicates that TESS planets will be dynamically cooler on average than Kepler planets, with 90% of TESS planets residing in orbits with e<0.15. We include both (1) a predicted sample of planets detected by TESS orbiting stars between 3200 and 4000 K, including additional nontransiting planets, or transiting and undetected planets orbiting the same star and (2) sample completeness functions for use by the community.2019AJ....157..113Bhttps://cdsarc.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/cat/J/AJ/157/113CatalogResearchIsServedByTAP VizieR generic serviceIsServedByConesearch servicerelated-toJ/ApJ/757/112 : Stellar diameters. II. K and M-stars (Boyajian+, 2012)J/ApJ/790/146 : Planets in Kepler's multi-transiting systems (Fabrycky+, 2014)J/ApJ/807/45 : Potentially habitable planets orbiting M dwarfsJ/ApJ/809/77 : Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) (Sullivan+, 2015)J/ApJ/825/19 : Mass-radius relationship for planets with Rp<4J/AJ/155/180 : A catalog of cool dwarf targets for the TESS (Muirhead+, 2018)J/ApJS/239/2 : Simulated exoplanets from TESS list of targets (Barclay+, 2018)https://cds.unistra.fr/vizier-org/licences_vizier.htmlhttps://vizier.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/VizieR-2?-source=J/AJ/157/113https://vizier.iucaa.in/viz-bin/VizieR-2?-source=J/AJ/157/113http://vizieridia.saao.ac.za/viz-bin/VizieR-2?-source=J/AJ/157/113https://vizier.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/votable?-source=J/AJ/157/113https://vizier.iucaa.in/viz-bin/votable?-source=J/AJ/157/113http://vizieridia.saao.ac.za/viz-bin/votable?-source=J/AJ/157/113GETtext/xml+votablehttps://tapvizier.cds.unistra.fr/TAPVizieR/tapCone search capability for table J/AJ/157/113/table2 (Mock full systems in which TESS detected at least one transiting planet)https://vizier.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/conesearch/J/AJ/157/113/table2?https://vizier.iucaa.in/viz-bin/conesearch/J/AJ/157/113/table2?http://vizieridia.saao.ac.za/viz-bin/conesearch/J/AJ/157/113/table2?GETtext/xml+votable180.050000true0.48-66.20.0055555555555555565/4005 6/31 114 737 741 821 824 1134 1203 1209 1400 1481 1645 1656 1681 1852 1864 1938 2058 2074 2223 2258 2352 2611 3083 3086 3102 3400 3562 3610 3673 3760 3827 3828 3877 3925 3966 4011 4229 4237 4240 4549 4561 4939 5205 5418 5452 5470 5493 5619 5673 5779 6001 6097 6315 6328 6583 6779 6781 7420 7476 7511 7548 7550 7601 7844 8059 8074 8075 8114 8131 8134 8200 8261 8273 8344 8562 8671 8762 8907 9088 9142 9162 9215 9255 9277 9290 9291 9323 9344 9361 9401 9411 9453 9454 9525 9546 9590 9603 9640 9656 9680 9686 9712 9739 9798 9855 9890 9916 9943 9990 9991 10004 10017 10047 10056 10064 10074 10077 10078 10106 10170 10174 10175 10180 10182 10187 10195 10200 10210 10212 10214 10224 10228 10231 10237 10309 10477 10571 10574 10618 10628 10684 10844 10979 10999 11090 11128 11132 11185 11262 11277 11288 11323 11335 11375 11438 11451 11453 11484 11492 11536 11540 11543 11545 11588 11590 11591 11593 11595 11596 11598 11601 11617 11620 11630 11631 11638 11666 11670 11678 11703 11707 11712 11719 11720 11725 11738 11739 11744 11745 11747 11750 11756 11757 11760 11764 11766 11769 11802 11807 11824 11825 11851 11853 11877 11932 11985 12052 12104 12113 12118 12138 12208 12214 12215 12217 12221 12245 12256 12286 12538 12722 12736 12764 12780 12781 12856 12888 12930 12935 13015 13193 13210 13320 13460 13499 13503 13584 13652 13661 13770 13784 13934 13962 14169 14257 14328 14330 14521 14539 14570 14572 14753 14778 14855 14870 14899 14951 14957 14963 14969 14991 15014 15027 15074 15103 15118 15119 15229 15233 15234 15253 15254 15273 15286 15298 15301 15311 15323 15326 15336 15339 15340 15348 15349 15359 15454 15471 15577 15603 15628 15662 15738 15761 15801 15815 15828 15830 15851 15859 15882 15883 15898 15914 15919 15921 15927 15931 15934 15935 15959 15973 15978 15985 15990 16008 16012 16014 16018 16019 16026 16037 16049 16051 16053 16054 16056 16067 16075 16084 16092 16096 16110 16111 16112 16114 16115 16116 16127 16147 16232 16241 16246 16260 16265 16266 16273 16274 16365 16497 16527 16574 16711 16739 16765 16909 17061 17072 17161 17259 17263 17300 17448 17449 17473 17512 17576 17577 17635 17638 17644 17735 17806 17818 17840 17841 17848 17852 17963 18435 18669 18907 19096 19141 19152 19203 19558 19563 19807 19967 20014 20019 20023 20236 20262 20274 20342 20472 20559 20571 20574 20645 20679 20691 20703 20727 20844 20915 20918 20919 21001 21030 21042 21081 21124 21131 21292 21653 21782 21826 21884 22106 22272 22361 22431 22541 22579 22606 22700 22777 22781 22799 22866 22890 22939 23025 23109 23112 23115 23118 23552 23693 23714 23752 23772 24562 24653 24665 24795 24839 24955 24961 25091 25286 25903 25949 26096 26199 26226 26371 26901 26909 26925 27173 27224 27277 27367 27368 28098 28118 28209 28241 28323 28375 28489 28505 28509 28564 28565 28619 29678 29811 29948 30091 30751 30763 30903 31006 31056 31184 31237 31393 31497 31558 31660 31662 31786 31876 31961 31965 31977 31993 32009 32040 32124 32213 32323 32326 32361 32433 32553 32557 32623 32634 32643 32739 32740 32755 32833 32836 32853 32855 32857 32865 32876 32880 32883 32892 32894 32899 32901 32908 32912 32913 32931 33008 33026 33027 33034 33035 33036 33037 33055 33057 33058 33059 33066 33072 33086 33093 33097 33113 33115 33120 33127 33139 33148 33150 33151 33156 33159 33160 33161 33164 33187 33189 33204 33217 33219 33222 33224 33233 33234 33241 33254 33271 33274 33275 33303 33333 33352 33371 33376 33408 33438 33534 33604 33693 33697 33704 33724 33725 33769 33786 33794 33808 33811 33817 33820 33825 33830 33831 33856 33871 33882 33895 33897 33902 33973 33974 33979 34059 34080 34088 34106 34153 34154 34178 34179 34180 34206 34212 34218 34246 34262 34263 34277 34304 34340 34399 34408 34432 34458 34544 34592 34646 34676 34685 34733 34754 34794 34795 34816 34841 34938 34966 34974 34992 35060 35141 35326 35348 35444 35522 35595 35692 35704 35920 35926 36010 36064 36098 36123 36164 36301 36527 36531 36559 36590 36673 36675 36870 36882 36929 36960 36977 36982 37003 37016 37018 37027 37032 37051 37063 37077 37079 37106 37119 37161 37225 37250 37290 37379 37393 37410 37413 37414 37416 37420 37440 37448 37450 37451 37455 37468 37473 37481 37484 37485 37491 37506 37517 37527 37529 37546 37550 37553 37567 37571 37574 37575 37581 37607 37608 37609 37613 37621 37624 37668 37761 37792 37996 38002 38076 38119 38241 38304 38317 38334 38378 38438 38439 38472 38548 38592 38605 38663 38711 38716 38722 38805 38826 38827 38840 38844 38851 38864 38922 38924 38936 38949 38951 38954 38957 38962 38967 38984 38985 38997 38999 39004 39020 39023 39033 39043 39063 39072 39078 39168 39180 39195 39265 39430 39436 39439 39518 39519 39682 39803 39816 39820 39891 39991 40005 40026 40038 40050 40117 40121 40213 40248 40344 40402 40409 40481 40485 40554 40558 40602 40737 40830 40872 40873 40992 40995 41023 41060 41182 41419 41457 41473 41499 41505 41513 41605 41618 41717 41917 41954 42061 42309 42311 42704 42859 43127 43178 43396 43410 43509 43658 43665 43878 43882 43886 43890 44102 44103 44114 44175 44719 44987 45060 45063 45081 45139 45210 45214 45221 45306 45377 45380 45435 45438 45445 45465 45546 45561 45610 45649 45654 45658 45748 45751 46049 46059 46062 46095 46177 46180 46293 46379 46393 46399 46442 46488 46609 46927 47087 47244 47255 47326 47347 47348 47349 47350 47462 47468 47470 47652 47655 47727 47732 47733 47805 47821 48236 48237 48242 48296 48466 49075 49120 49121https://cdsarc.cds.unistra.fr/viz-bin/moc/J/AJ/157/113?format=asciidefaultJ/AJ/157/113/table2Mock full systems in which TESS detected at least one transiting planetrecnoRecord number assigned by the VizieR team. Should Not be used for identification.meta.recordintStar[1/952] Star identifiermeta.id;meta.mainintPl[1/8] Planet identifiermeta.code.multipintTeff[3210/3990] Star surface effective temperatureKphys.temperature.effectiveintVmag[9.7/19.2] V-band magnitudemagphot.mag;em.opt.VfloatKmag[5.5/14.5] K-band magnitudemagphot.mag;em.IR.KfloatDist[4.9/323.5] System distancepcpos.distancefloatRAJ2000[0.48/359.8] Star Right Ascension in decimal degrees (J2000)degpos.eq.ra;meta.mainDEJ2000[-88.2/88.73] Star Declination in decimal degrees (J2000)degpos.eq.dec;meta.mainPer[0.8/199.98] Orbital perioddtime.periodfloata[5.4/579.2] Orbital semi-major axissolRadphys.angSize.smajAxisfloati[-28.7/29.12] Inclinationdegsrc.orbital.inclinationfloatM*[0.07/16.1] Star masssolMassphys.massfloatR*[0.5/3.9] Star radiussolRadphys.size.radiusfloatOmega[0.1/359.9] Longitude of the node {Omega}degsrc.orbital.nodefloate[0.009/0.624] Eccentricitysrc.orbital.eccentricityfloatHill[4.765/63.88] Hill spacing quantity {Delta} (1)phys.size;arith.ratiofloatTrans[0/1]? Transit flag (2)meta.codeintnullableDet[-100/1]? Detected flag (3)meta.code.errorintnullable